Should We Lower Our Ambitions Immediately?

In this risk state, the goal indicates that risk exposure greatly exceeds risk capacity. The forecast strongly suggests that the goal will fall below the target range threshold. Given this, it is advisable to reassess and potentially lower the level of ambition, especially if the threats driving the negative forecast are unmanageable.

Intervene to Explore How We Can Improve!

In this risk state, the goal indicates that risk exposure exceeds risk capacity. The forecast suggests that performance will fall below the target threshold, and the supporting evidence is weak. To address this, it's crucial to establish sufficient risk capacity and strengthen the evidence. It’s easy to become pessimistic in this situation, so a realistic plan to build the necessary capacity is essential. Take the time to investigate the factors causing the negative forecast and identify potential opportunities within these risks.

Let's Validate Our Ambitious Goals!

In this risk state, the goal suggests that risk capacity is slightly lower than risk exposure, indicating some uncertainty about the evidence supporting the forecast. Despite this, the forecast suggests goal achievement is likely, and the business or project remains optimistic. Effort is needed to build sufficient risk capacity. To move towards stronger evidence, it's crucial to gather and bolster evidence. Simultaneously, balance resources between managing threats and seizing opportunities, and prioritize these efforts effectively.

Let's Explore Raising Our Ambition!

Setting a goal in this risk state means our risk exposure is below our risk capacity. The forecast suggests the goal will exceed the target value, though the evidence is still weak. Here, the business or project is proactive, aiming to elevate ambitions over time. Achieving and surpassing the target value will require effort, leveraging measures that have shown positive results in the forecast. Maintaining the allocated risk capacity is essential. To build confidence in exceeding the current target value, gather relevant data through scenario planning, strategic development, business modeling, brainstorming, user testing, and similar activities.

Should We Raise Our Ambition?

In this risk state, risk capacity exceeds risk exposure, and strong evidence suggests the goal will surpass its target. This indicates maturity, justifying an increase in ambition. Being in a defensive risk state implies caution in setting higher goals, but the opportunity to raise ambition within mature parameters should be seized.

Shall we ensure goal achievement?

A goal in this risk state indicates a well-balanced relationship between risk capacity and risk exposure. The forecast strongly supports that the goal will be achieved within the target range. In this scenario, the business or project can secure goal attainment by managing identified risks, or they can leverage this stable situation to explore new opportunities and potentially elevate their ambitions over time.

Unrealistically High Ambitions

If most goals fall into this category, it indicates that the ambition level is unrealistic, necessitating a re-evaluation of goals. Quickly recognizing this and learning from it is crucial for future success.

Chaotic and Consolidating

If most goals are in this category, chaos and frustration are likely prevalent. The organization may be firefighting rather than making strategic decisions, with short-term measures overshadowing long-term goals. It's important to reinforce the organization’s position and avoid changing goals prematurely.

Vulnerable and Hopeful

If most goals are in this category, it means the evidence is weak, but optimism prevails. It's crucial to strengthen the weak evidence. The fine line between optimism and pessimism requires careful management and additional leadership support to avoid stagnation.

Challenging Ambition Levels

If most goals are in this category, it means the organization or project has set high ambitions, perhaps too aggressively. Multiple parallel innovative efforts might threaten each other if risk capacity isn't well managed. Systematic risk management and critical consequence analysis are essential.

Ready for Higher Ambitions

If most goals fall into this category, it means the ambition level can be increased. Staying too long in this risk state without raising ambitions can lead to complacency and stagnation. Be vigilant for overlooked threats if the organization has been in this state for most goals.

Seeking Safety and Status Quo

If most goals fall here, it means near-complete goal achievement, possibly signaling the project's end. For long-term businesses, remaining in this state without adjusting goals may indicate a lack of innovation. A homogeneous leadership team might be overly cautious, leading to missed opportunities for innovation.